Navigating global trade and markets risks: A practical business guide

The phrase global trade and markets risks captures growing uncertainty for businesses today. In the past days, headlines ranged from China’s potential rare earth controls to a UK push for a steel “alliance,” sharp bond moves in Argentina, a US-listed private markets platform exploring a sale, and a high-profile legal claim against a major bank. Therefore, managers must assess supply, policy, market confidence, deal pipelines, and reputational exposure. This guide lays out clear implications and practical next steps for companies and investors to manage these shifting risks.

## China, rare earths and global trade and markets risks

Recent reporting shows US officials expect China to delay implementing rare earth export controls as trade talks progress ahead of a summit between the two leaders. That development matters because rare earths are critical inputs for electronics, defense systems, and emerging technologies. Therefore, the mere prospect of export curbs creates a strategic supply-chain shock. Companies that rely on these materials may face sudden sourcing constraints or pricing volatility if restrictions are tightened.

However, the current signals — talks yielding progress — suggest a window for businesses to act. Firms should map exposure to rare earths across products and suppliers. Additionally, they should evaluate inventory buffers and alternative sources, including recycling or substitution where feasible. For procurement and risk teams, scenario planning is practical now: model outcomes ranging from a short delay to longer-term limits, and estimate cost and timing impacts.

Impact and outlook: Even a delayed move would keep the issue on corporate radars. Therefore, businesses with hardware or advanced materials in their supply chains should prioritize supplier diversification and engage with policymakers through industry groups. That will reduce vulnerability if policy shifts accelerate.

Source: ft.com

A steel "alliance": policy response and global trade and markets risks

The UK’s trade minister has proposed a “steel alliance” with the US and EU to tackle a global glut of Chinese steel. This is a clear example of governments coordinating to address persistent oversupply and price pressure in a strategic industry. Therefore, companies in metals, construction, and capital goods must watch how trade policy might change and what protective measures could emerge.

For businesses, coordinated policy action can work two ways. On one hand, it could restore a more level playing field for domestic producers by imposing tariffs, quotas, or coordinated standards. On the other, it may spur retaliatory measures, or create new compliance burdens for international firms. Procurement teams should assess supplier footprints and the origin of inputs. Manufacturing planners should stress-test production economics under different tariff or quota scenarios.

Additionally, being part of industry dialogues matters. Trade associations and sector groups often shape the design of alliances and the remedies they pursue. Therefore, firms should increase engagement now if trade remedies or “clubs” are under discussion. Risk teams should also consider longer-term strategic shifts: will buyers reshore sourcing? Will price transparency change? Each outcome brings different investment and operational choices.

Impact and outlook: A steel club signals a renewed appetite for policy coordination to manage global capacity. Consequently, businesses should prepare for faster trade-rule changes and factor potential protective measures into investment decisions.

Source: ft.com

Market reactions: Argentina’s vote and global trade and markets risks

Financial markets reacted quickly after an electoral endorsement for President Javier Milei’s party, with Argentine bonds and the currency surging. Investors interpreted the result as support for market-friendly reforms and likely continuity in policy. Therefore, political outcomes remain a powerful driver of short-term market dynamics, especially in emerging economies.

For corporate leaders and investors, the episode underlines two practical lessons. First, political events can represent catalysts for rapid repricing. Risk managers should maintain flexible hedging strategies and crisis playbooks that cover sudden shifts in sovereign credit and currency valuations. Second, market moves can create windows for financing or M&A. If bond spreads tighten and currencies strengthen, issuers may find more favorable borrowing terms. Conversely, volatility can close such windows.

Additionally, enterprises operating in the country should plan for both scenario outcomes: sustained reform momentum or a reversal. Operationally, this means stress-testing cash flow in multiple currency and interest-rate states. For portfolio managers, it means reassessing country allocations and liquidity buffers.

Impact and outlook: Political endorsement that reassures markets can unlock financing and lower borrowing costs. However, the improvement may be fragile. Therefore, businesses should be ready to act quickly when markets open opportunities and to protect themselves if sentiment shifts.

Source: ft.com

Private markets shake-up: Forge Global and secondary-market signals

Forge Global, the platform that trades stakes in private startups, is reportedly exploring a sale after a sharp drop in its share price. The company went public in 2021 through a reverse merger with a blank-cheque firm. This move highlights two trends: the ongoing reevaluation of private-market infrastructures and the fragility of listings that lack steady investor conviction.

For buyers and sellers in private equity and venture ecosystems, this development is a reminder that secondary markets and liquidity platforms face unique valuation and demand pressures. Therefore, founders and investors should consider how changes in venue stability could affect exit options. Companies thinking of using such platforms for employee liquidity must signal contingency plans to staff.

In practical terms, boards and CFOs should review liquidity pathways and investor communications. If a trading platform becomes unstable, secondary liquidity can dry up, affecting valuations and employee morale. For acquirers and advisors, a potential sale or consolidation of platforms is also a strategic signal. M&A advisers may see deal flow from distressed listings or consolidation among intermediaries.

Impact and outlook: The situation underlines that private-market access tools are not immune to public-market dynamics. Consequently, stakeholders should reassess exit strategies, stress-test employee equity programs, and keep alternative liquidity routes ready.

Source: ft.com

Reputational and legal fallout: UBS, Tom Hayes, and risk management

A high-profile lawsuit has emerged as former trader Tom Hayes sues his former employer, UBS, for $400 million. He claims the bank wrongly portrayed him as the “evil mastermind” behind the Libor rate-rigging scandal. This case emphasizes how reputational and legal risks can persist long after a crisis, and why firms should treat legacy litigation as an active risk.

For compliance and legal teams, the suit is a reminder that narratives around past misconduct can resurface and affect trust, hiring, and client relationships. Therefore, boards should ensure legal exposures are clearly understood and communicated. Additionally, firms should assess whether their past disclosures and messaging hold up under renewed scrutiny.

Operationally, firms may need to revisit settlement strategies, insurance coverage, and public relations playbooks. Human resources should prepare for potential impacts on staff morale and recruitment, especially in trading and client-facing units. For clients and investors, persistent litigation can be a signal to re-evaluate counterparty risk, even if the dispute does not immediately affect operations.

Impact and outlook: Legacy litigation can be costly and reputationally damaging. Therefore, companies should integrate scenarios about reopened cases into their risk registers, and ensure they have an updated engagement and communications strategy ready.

Source: ft.com

Final Reflection: Connecting policy, markets, deals and reputation

These stories form a connected picture of how policy, politics, markets, platforms, and reputations interact to shape business risk. Supply constraints from potential rare earth controls can cascade into costs and strategic sourcing changes. Policy clubs, such as the proposed steel alliance, show governments are ready to coordinate responses that reshape competition. Political outcomes in countries like Argentina can swing capital flows overnight. Meanwhile, platforms that provide liquidity in private markets can weaken quickly, altering exit plans. Finally, legacy legal cases prove that reputational risks do not expire.

Therefore, businesses should adopt an integrated risk lens. Combine supply-chain mapping with policy monitoring. Link treasury and capital market strategies to political scenario planning. Keep exit and employee-liquidity plans flexible. And treat legal and reputational exposures as continuous governance priorities. By doing so, companies can turn uncertainty into a managed, strategic advantage.

Overall, the immediate outlook calls for vigilance and agility. However, with clear scenarios and decisive action, leaders can navigate global trade and markets risks while seizing the opportunities that volatility creates.